Play-off duo two of a kind

Leyton Orient take on Rotherham in the League One play-off final at Wembley on Sunday and the purists will be happy as the two highest-ranked sides meet for the chance to play in the Championship next season.

Both sides have had fantastic campaigns, achieving well beyond expectation, and they did it playing in an attacking manner that was fantastic to watch.

There was little to separate them over the course of the League One campaign as they both finished on 86 points, with Russell Slade’s men earning third position thanks to a better goal difference, while the two previous games this season finished with one win apiece and an aggregate of 2-2.

So, although an open and entertaining game is on the cards at the home of football, it is expected to be close as they are two teams that have had uncannily similar seasons.

Goals

Both sides knew where the net was in the regular campaign, with Rotherham bagging 86 goals and Orient 85, both averaging a goal every 51 minutes. Only runaway leaders Wolves scored more with 89.

It goes without saying that for all those goals to go in there had to be a fair amount of creativity and there were chances galore, with the Millers averaging 12.9 shots per match and the O’s 11.3. Nothing could separate their top assist-makers either as Ben Pringle and Dean Cox both created 13 goals in the regular season.

Their attacking prowess was not restricted to home soil as both sides racked up an impressive 42 goals on their travels, the best in the Football League, better Leicester and Wolves who both registered 100 points in their respective divisions.

Despite their impressive tally, the Millers actually failed to find the net on nine occasions, compared to Orient’s four which was the best record in the division. However, the Millers managed to accrue four points when they didn’t score, while Orient could only secure one goalless draw.

Consistency

It has been an incredibly consistent season for both sides, with Steve Evans’ men beaten just eight times and Orient 10. The O’s enjoyed a record-breaking start to their season, winning their first eight of a 12-match unbeaten. That was their best run of the season, but it was beaten by the Millers 16-game unbeaten stretch at the start of 2014. The longest Rotherham had to go without a victory was five games in the autumn, while Orient’s longest winless streak was four games in February.

That consistency helped both teams hold an impressive record against teams who finished in the top half. Rotherham took 35 points from top-half opposition, compared to Orient’s 33, though seven of Rotherham’s eight defeats came in those games.

But one thing that has been the driving force of fantastic seasons is an incredible durability. The Millers’ penchant for late goals has been well documented, but they rescued an impressive 23 points from losing positions and that was the best in the division, one more than Orient, who hauled back 22 points.

Perhaps the most crucial stat in predicting how the game will go falls in the Millers’ favour, though. Evans’ unwavering we’ll-score-one-more approach has seen his side register a mammoth 16 points when they have conceded two or more goals in their games, a healthy five more than anyone else.

So the stats say it will be a clash full of goals, with Rotherham coming from behind after conceding two goals. The Millers to win 3/2 at 30/1could be a sensible bet!

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Wands, Lady Luck and one-legged men

Rotherham's fantastic season carried on at full pace on Thursday as they delivered a superb performance to book their place in the League One play-off final at Wembley, seeing off a strong Preston side.

It was a rampant display, which was rewarded with a final date with Leyton Orient at the home of football next Sunday.


Here's a sideways analysis of a great night for the Millers.

The Entertainers

Rotherham have had periods of success over recent years, but have they ever been so good to watch? With this current crop, you know that whatever happens they will go out with the intention of scoring goals and the result has been a season of pure entertainment and drama. The way they went for the win at Deepdale in the first leg on Saturday typified their intent and even when Preston took the lead at New York there was no panic because of what Steve Evans’ men had in their locker. Their ability to get from front to back so quickly, coupled with a lethal counter-attack and a relentless commitment to get men forward has been the catalyst of the success. Evans has vowed not to change his tactics for the play-off final, but whatever happens at Wembley, long may that ethos continue.

The Wand

‘There’s a little bit of stardust in Ben Pringle’s left boot’ was one of the better sound bytes from commentator Gary Weaver in Sky Sports’ coverage of the game. Pringle, who has won plenty of acclaim this season, had a magical night and was at the forefront of virtually everything the Millers did. His deliveries for the first two goals were superb, but not as good as ones that set up chances for Kari Arnason and Wes Thomas and if his first-time volley early in the second half had gone in, then Evans might have been wondering if he was going to wake up a chicken. He nearly bent another one in at the end and the watching millions (okay, probably thousands) on TV were left wishing they had him in their team.

Wooing Lady Luck

Who knows what sort of moves Adam Collin had been making on Lady Luck ahead of this game, but whatever they were they worked as she well and truly put out on the stroke of the break. With the hosts leading 2-1 and preparing for some half-time oranges that would have tasted particularly sweet, Collin let John Welsh’s 25-yard tame effort slip through his grasp. It looked for all the world like it was going to drop into the goal and allow Preston to level at a crucial time, but Lady Luck had been wooed and she made sure it went just the right side of the post and the Millers escaped. Most would say that the former Carlisle mad had earned that.

The one-legged man

Although there is some conjecture about exactly how much smoke Steve Evans was blowing regarding the injury situation in the build-up to the game, it was clear that Kieran Agard was not fully fit. After passing a fitness test at about 11am the Millers’ top scorer battled on and although at times he looked like he was playing on ice, he showed exactly why Evans took a risk by playing him. His pace was a constant threat and it was his 26^th goal of the season, courtesy of the composure in the penalty area which has been the trademark of his sensational tally, that put one foot on Wembley way. Evans deserves credit for gambling on his and Lee Frecklington’s fitness, but the biggest praise has to go to retiring physio Denis Circuit and his magic sponge.

New York foundations

There’s no doubt that the New York Stadium is a magnificent piece of architecture and it has provided a fine home for the Millers for the last two seasons. However, its true test has come with the manner of Steve Evans’ celebrations, firstly after promotion last year and then again after Thursday night. Climbing on a ledge in the directors’ box, with little support, the sizeable Scot jumped up and down and waved his tie around like a mad man. But the main stand stood firm, when many other buildings would have crumbled, proving it's made out of stern stuff. 

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Pringle earns Evans love

Rotherham boss Steve Evans went on record with his love for Ben Pringle long before the midfielder's virtuoso display in the League One play-off semi-final second-leg win over Preston.

The 24-year-old has been one of the stellar performers for the Millers in a superb campaign and was at his best on Thursday as he created his side's first two goals and then twice came within inches of registering with spectacular efforts.

While the watching nation may have been seeing Pringle and his magic left foot in action for the first time, perhaps putting a bit of weight onto his price tag, his performance against North End was nothing new.

He received plenty of acclaim throughout the season as not only did he attract interest from Championship clubs throughout the year, but he also was named in the PFA League One Team of the Year.

He earned further recognition after being placed on the long-list for the Football League’s League One Player of the Year and it’s easy to see why after five goals and 13 assists in the regular season.

Before his two assists on Thursday he was at it again with his quality ball down the line for Alex Revell during Saturday's first leg, meaning he created three out of the four Millers' goals over the two legs.

Only Wolves’ Bakary Sako created more goals in the division than Pringle in the regular season, with 14 set-ups, while Leyton Orient’s Dean Cox also assisted 13 times.

That equates to one assist every 325 minutes Pringle was on the pitch, which is fairly impressive, though is bettered by both Cox (322) and Sako (234).

Of course those direct stats do not include other influences the former Derby man has had in a game, as a sizeable number of Millers goals have come from his balls into the box being knocked down by another player or being cleared for corners or long throws, which have then gone on yield goals.

He has also bagged five times himself in the league, not including the exocet in the Capital One Cup against Sheffield Wednesday, with strikes against Gillingham, Shrewsbury and Bristol City particular stand-out efforts.

It’s no surprise that Pringle has found the back of the net given the amount of shots he has peppered in at goal.

In 45 league appearances, he had 67 shots, 26 of those were on target, with 41 off.

His performances have earned almost constant praise from Evans, who has been accused by the rest of the squad of having a soft spot for the left-sided midfielder, something that he recently admitted.

“He is a Championship player all day long and when I arrived he was in the cupboard and how you could put a player like that in the cupboard I don’t know,” Evans said.

“The players say I love him and they’re right I do love him. I'm in love with Ben Pringle.

“I am not knocking Andy Scott because of his management of Ben but he is the sort of lad who can deliver magic.”

And if Pringle puts in another performance like Thursday's at Wembley and the Millers win promotion there may be 15,000 plus other people confessing their love for him.

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Five things we learned from Preston away

Rotherham put in an impressive display in their League One play-off semi-final first leg at Preston on Saturday and were only denied a vital win by missed chances and a once-in-a-lifetime goal from Joe Garner.

The 1-1 draw sets up an intriguing second leg on Thursday, where both sides will fancy their chances of progressing to Wembley.

Here's five things we learned from the game.

Rotherham can handle the big stage

After the poor performance at Sheffield United, where the Millers turned up to arguably their biggest game of the season at the time with a huge billing and expectation and were rubbish, questions were asked whether they could hack it on the big stage. The incredible game at Wolves went some way to atoning for that Bramall Lane no-show, but the display at Preston on Saturday proved beyond doubt that the Millers know how to handle the big occasion. In a high-pressure environment, they were the better side for the majority of the game, were rarely threatened at the back and had the better chances to have won it. Nobody froze or had a bad game, this was a fine display and one that boss Steve Evans was right to be proud of.

Alex Revell can run forward with the ball

There has been times when it has seemed that Alex Revell has been the modern-day Richie Barker, albeit with a lot more mobility. It's fair to say Revell's best work is with his back to goal and he has provided a superb presence in attack all season, often getting battered from opposition defences. Yet, he showed a different facet to his game at Deepdale with his fine solo goal, which has gone without deserved praise owing to the magnifence of Joe Garner's goal for Preston. The manner of his control from Ben Pringle's ball was superb and nothing new, but the way he raced away from the defender, closed in on goal and then coolly finished was something that we would not always associate with the big man. After suffering confidence issues earlier in the season, which saw him shy away from shooting in such positions, it was great to see him tuck the ball away with such ease and his uncontrollable joy after it hit the back of net was enjoyed by everyone.

It could be a long night on Thursday

Although the Millers have home advantage in the second leg and could be favourites to progress, it is extremely unlikely that either side is going to win it by a landslide. Rotherham had the better of things at Deepdale and still could not get a win and the fact that three meetings with Simon Grayson's men this season have all ended in draws suggests it is safe to assume that the New York clash will be a similarly tight affair with not much separating the two sides. With no away goals, extra-time and penalties could well be on the cards on Thursday. The Millers have had first-hand experience of penalty shootout despair in the play-off semi-finals and it is not an enjoyable one. It could be worth practising penalties in the next few days, but even then there may still be a cruel twist that leaves one player who has had a brilliant season as the new Andy Roscoe. Bring your fingernails, you might need them.

The depth of squad is the best ever

This is hardly a ground-breaking revelation, given it is the quality of the squad that has got Rotherham to where they are, but the players who came into the side on Saturday showed exactly what sort of options Steve Evans has at his disposal. With top scorer Kieran Agard pulling up lame the day before the game, Wes Thomas, who has not always been impressive, came in and provided a superb foil for Revell in attack. Rob Milsom made light of Richie Smallwood's absence with a fine holdling display, while Michael O'Connor came on after Richard Brindley's injury and did a more than competent job on the right of midfield. There was plenty left on the bench as Claude Davis, who has barely played in the final few weeks of the season, was called on after Lee Frecklington was injury and kept a dangerous Preston front line quiet, while striker Haris Vuckic almost snuck a last-gasp winner. Evans is good at directing attention to other club's resources, but this is arguably the best squad Rotherham have ever had.

Steve Evans needs some new material

The Millers boss is probably one of the most quotable managers in the English game. He loves a comedic throwaway line, never minces his words and there is no finer name-dropper around. But his effort in yesterday's post-match press gathering shows that he has exhausted all of his best lines. Asked about the quality of Garner's goal, Evans riposte was to say: "If there's a better goal in the play-offs then I'll wake up a chicken". Any ideas?

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Why the play-offs really are a lottery

‘The play-offs are a lottery’ is easily one of the best-used clichés in the game. But ahead of Rotherham’s two-legged semi-final with Preston over the next week, here are six points of stats and conjecture that totally contradict each other and prove that actually it is virtually impossible to predict what is going to happen. This is the post that tried to shed light on the play-offs but actually confused exactly what is going to happen even more!

Favourites

Rotherham boss Steve Evans has been quick to let everybody knows he thinks Preston are the favourites for the play-off campaign, with bookmakers and most other people following suit. However, for the semi-final at least Rotherham should not be classed as the underdog, even though Evans would thrive on it. After all, Rotherham had a better season than Preston as they finished above them in the league, with more points and a better goal difference. They scored the same amount of goals at home and far more away, though they also conceded slightly more.

Preston's baggage

Although Rotherham have never emerged victorious from their two previous outings in the revamped play-offs, their baggage is lightweight compared to that which Preston are carrying. North End hold the record for the most unsuccessful play-off campaigns with eight and they have never gone up that way. Two of those failures came as semi-finalists in the third tier in 1989 and 1999 and their most recent misery came in 2009 where they were beaten by South Yorkshire opposition at the semi-final stage, going down to Sheffield United.

However, their dismal record, which has to end at some point, could be balanced out by boss Simon Grayson’s impressive promotion record. Grayson has taken Blackpool, Leeds and Huddersfield into the Championship, two of those with successful play-off campaigns.

This season's league results

The two league results against Preston in the regular campaign should be discarded as they have no relevance or pointer as to how the semi-finals will go. Famously in 1998/99 Rotherham were beaten inthe play-off semi-finals on penalties by Leyton Orient following 210 minutes of goalless action, which came after the Millers had beaten Orient by an aggregate of 7-1 over their two league games. Similarly in 2009/10 Aldershot had a league aggregate of 3-0 over Ronnie Moore’s side in the two clashes, the same score by which Rotherham progressed to Wembley.

Change in tactics

Rotherham will never go into their shell and park a bus, but despite an almost gung-ho approach in the regular campaign which has beared significant fruit, Evans has hinted that the Millers will be more restrained in the semi-finals. That’s something of a new mindset for the players to contend with and it will be interesting to see how that evolves into a performance. However, make no mistake, if the Millers need a goal or two in the final 10 minutes, Evans will have no qualms with playing five up front.

Lies, damned lies and statistics

Based on historical data, Rotherham are likely to end up going out to Preston at the semi-final stage. Since the revamp format of the play-offs in 1988/89, the side finishing in the second play-off spot (in this instance fourth) has gone out at the first hurdle 45 per cent of the time, winning just 19 per cent of previous finals and losing 36 per cent of them. Stats are a little better for the third tier in isolation, showing that 24 per cent of previous winners have come from the fourth-placed team, though that record is only worsened by the team who finish fifth. So according to these stats, the Millers are likeliest to be beaten by Preston at the semi-final stage because they finished fourth, but still have a better chance of winning the play-offs than North End! Does your head hurt too?

Form

Form and momentum is a buzzword when it comes to the play-offs, but history doesn’t necessarily agree. Across the three divisions over the last five years, losing semi-finalists collected an average of 9.5 points from their final five games of the regular season, compared to that of 9.3 of the winners. But in terms of League One alone form does seem to count as the last five winners have collected an average of 9.6, compared to 8.4 of runners-up and 9.3 of losing semi-finalists.

The Millers collected eight points from their final five fixtures, though Evans rotated his side for the majority of those, and that was the lowest of all of the play-off qualifiers. Peterborough collected 10 points, while Preston and Orient both chalked up nine. Head still hurting?

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